SUSA Poll

Friday, 15 May 2009 07:58

Independent poll numbers validate John Oxendine as the front-runner for Governor:

A poll conducted 13 April, 2009 by Survey USA for WXIA-TV validates the fact that John Oxendine is the leading candidate for Governor in the State of Georgia. This poll surveyed 600 statewide, registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. The poll only addressed the approval ratings of the candidates surveyed. The results are as follows:

Democrats: (favorable/unfavorable)

Roy Barnes - 27/22

Thurbert Baker - 14/13

David Poythress - 14/8

Dubose Porter - 9/9

Republicans: (favorable/unfavorable)

John Oxendine - 39/9

Casey Cagle - 25/15

Karen Handel - 19/11

Austin Scott - 8/10

Governor Perdue was also included in the poll and his results are: 40/43.

Team Oxendine observes that the favorable/unfavorable results mirror recent polling done in a head to head contest. The number clearly demonstrates John Oxendine is the strongest Republican to represent the Republican Party in the general election. Team Oxendine is humbled this poll demonstrates John Oxendine is also the strongest candidate from either party with Georgia voters.

From Electionadvantage.net: 

Georgia (Open, Perdue-R) This is a key Governorship in this rapidly growing state (it could be the 8th most populated in the country by the next census), and both sides are putting some impressive candidates in the race. For the Democrats, AG Thurbert Baker, Fmr. Secretary Of State David Pothyress, and State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter are running, with Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes said to be considering it. The Republican field has been shaken up by the departure of LG Casey Cagle from the race, likely leaving the Republican Primary battle between Insurance Comssioner John Oxendine and Secretary Of State Karen Handel; a SUSA poll this week showed Oxendine as the most well-liked candidate in the entire field.

The big news this week in this race is that Cagle, considered by many to be the frontrunner, has dropped out of the race for medical reasons. That leaves the Republican Primary basically between Oxendine and Handel (Scott appears to basically be a non-factor), with this poll indicating that Oxendine is the frontrunner - 51% of Republicans view him favorably compared to just 21% of Republicans who view Handel favorably. Notice also that Oxendine at +30 is much more popular than Cagle at +10- some have talked about Cagle's departure from the race as an opening for the Democrats, but it looks like Oxendine would be much stronger.

On the Democratic side, I'm most surprised by Baker's lackluster support, especially after handily winning 3 terms as Attorney General. With his winning track record and the fact that he's African-American, I thought he would roll through the primay, but this poll shows Barnes far more popular with black voters (48%/6%) than Baker (16%/8%). Neither fares as well as Pothyress, though, among the overall electorate, as he actually draws positive views from Republicans (13%/6%) as well as Democrats (16%/7%).

SIGNIFICANT ADVANTAGE FOR THE REPUBLICANS. (emphasis authors)

Georgia GOP District Convention Straw Polls:

This past Saturday, the Georgia Republican Party held their 2009 district conventions. These conventions occur in each Congressional District across the state simultaneously. Team Oxendine is humbled and honored John Oxendine won a majority of the straw polls conducted in every region of the state and demonstrating he is a true statewide candidate. The results are as follows:

5th District:

Handel - 35.9%
Oxendine - 25.64%
Olens - 15.38%
Burkhalter - 10.26%
McBerry - 10.26%
Westmoreland - 2.56%

7th District:

Oxendine - 49.01%
Handel - 41.06%
None of the Above - 5.30%
McBerry - 3.97%
Scott - 0.00662%

9th District:

Oxendine - 60%
Handel - 18.95%
Write-Ins - 12.63%
McBerry - 7.37%
Scott 1.05%

10th District:

Oxendine - 29.76%
Handel - 29.76%
Undecided - 34.52%
Write-Ins - 5.95%

11th District:

Oxendine - 40.85%
McBerry - 22.54%
Handel - 17.61%
Write-Ins - 11.97%
Scott - 7.04%

12th District:

Handel - 43.48%
Kingston - 39.13%
Oxendine - 17.39%

13th District:

Oxendine - 82.86%
Handel - 11.43%
Olens - 2.86%
McBerry - 2.86%

Aggregate Totals:

Oxendine - 44.63%
Handel - 30.79%
Others - 14.77%
McBerry - 7.78%
Scott - 2.02%

Based on 2008 Presidential preference primary results, John Oxendine won districts that represent 72.4% of Republican primary votes with Karen Handel winning districts that represent 8.6% of the Republican primary votes. The 10th District is not included in this total since it was a tie. 

These results are certainly not scientific and only represent a snapshot of the grassroots leaders who were in attendance at the District Conventions. We don't want to overstate or understate these results, but they do validate the fact that there is a clear front-runner among Georgia Republican Party activists and that person is John Oxendine.